After a year of significant gains for Russia, looming large is the presidency of Donald Trump, who has pledged to end the war in “a single day” — even if he has indicated that he is in part sympathetic to Moscow’s arguments and has remained skeptical of promising open-ended military aid to Kyiv.

After more than 1,000 days of war, Ukraine is running short on manpower while the Kremlin has stepped up bombings of cities and infrastructure, launching missiles, drones and artillery rounds at civilian targets.